The MyRA, the USARF & Cash Balance Plans
New & old concepts to address the retirement savings gap.
How many 401(k)s have more than $100k in them? According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), the average 401(k) balance at the end of 2012 was $63,929. Even with stocks rising last year, the average balance likely remains underwhelming.1
Is this enough money to retire on? No – and this is only part of America’s retirement dilemma. There is inequity in retirement savings – some households have steadily contributed to retirement accounts, others have not. Additionally, IRAs, 401(k)s and 403(b)s can suffer when stocks plunge, with the most invested potentially having the most to lose.
There is no perfect retirement savings plan, and there probably never will be – but ideas are emerging to try and address these problems.
Will MyRAs help more workers save? Over 40% of Americans don’t have a chance to participate in tax-advantaged workplace retirement plans. Last week, President Obama authorized the Treasury to create a new retirement savings account for them – the MyRA.1
Technically speaking, the MyRA is a Roth IRA with one savings option. After-tax dollars going into the account would be invested in a new type of federal savings bond. As the White House told NPR last week, a MyRA would offer the same variable rate of return as that of the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Government Securities Investment Fund. From 2003-12, the TSP’s GSIF returned an average of 3.61% annually.2,3
A Roth IRA with one savings option may not sound very exciting, but the MyRA isn’t about excitement. A MyRA would feature principal protection with tax-free growth. Employees who earn as much as $191,000 a year could invest in one, contributing as little as $5 per paycheck. The federal government would pay account fees for MyRA owners and hire an institutional investment manager to oversee the program.1,4
A MyRA would act as a “starter” retirement account for hampered or reluctant savers: MyRA assets of $15,000 or more would be automatically rolled over into Roth IRAs.2
Analysts see three drawbacks to MyRAs. One, accountholders will apparently be able to withdraw their assets at any time. As IRA guru Ed Slott tells Reuters, workers would “have to look at it as a long-term savings account and not a slush fund” to get the most out of participating. Two, enrollment will be voluntary, and "if you don't have automatic enrollment, then not a lot of people are going to use it," cautions Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Three, the rate of return on a MyRA would be well under historical norms for stocks.1,4
How about the USARF? Speaking of automatic enrollment, Sen. Tom Harkin (R-IA) proposes creating the USA Retirement Funds, a new private pension program. Workers would automatically defer 6% of their paychecks into these investment funds, which would be overseen by the federal government yet managed by independent trustees. Employees would be in unless they opted out. Employers wouldn’t be required to match employee contributions, and they wouldn’t shoulder any fiduciary liability for plan assets; they would simply deal with payroll deductions. Low-income participants could qualify for a "refundable savers credit" – the USARF would match as much as $2,000 of their annual contributions via direct deposit.5
A worker could contribute up to $10,000 annually to the USARF, with $5,500 in yearly catch-up contributions permitted for those 50 and older. Employers could optionally make per-employee contributions of up to $5,000 per year, but contributions could not vary per employee. The funds wouldn’t offer any principal protection for plan participants, but they would get a pension-like income for life, complete with survivor benefits and spousal protections. Defined benefits would only be reduced a maximum of 5% in a downturn.5
And how about the cash balance plan? A cash balance plan is a pooled retirement trust with characteristics of an old-school pension plan. The employer funds the plan and plan trustees make investment decisions instead of plan participants. The employer contributes X amount of dollars into each employee’s “account.” The contribution is based on X% of employee pay plus a fixed-interest crediting rate, usually around 4-5%. Assets tend to be conservatively invested, and annual contribution limits are age-weighted for shareholders – they can be much greater than those for 401(k)s. A retiree ends up with either a lump sum or lifelong income based upon their end salary. These plans are often combined with 401(k) profit-sharing plans.6
During the 2000s, the number of cash balance plans grew by about 20% a year – and the trade journal Pension & Investments thinks they will be as common as 401(k)s in the coming years.6
Kim Bolker may be reached at 616-942-8600 or kbolker@sigmarep.com
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - latimes.com/business/la-fi-obama-myra-20140130,0,1409442.story#axzz2ruxl6bgF [1/29/14]
2 - consumeraffairs.com/news/obamas-no-risk-retirement-savings-plan-is-it-for-you-012914.html [1/29/14]
3 - tinyurl.com/ly7xf7p [1/29/14]
4 - tinyurl.com/n42cc2l [1/29/14]
5 - usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/01/30/harkin-retirement-bill/5051887/ [1/30/14]
6 - marketwatch.com/story/could-this-retirement-plan-replace-the-401k-2013-05-03 [5/3/13]
Organizing Your Paperwork for Tax Season
If you haven’t done it, now’s the time.
How prepared are you to prepare your 1040? The earlier you compile and organize the relevant paperwork, the easier things may be for you (or the tax preparer working for you) this winter. Here are some tips to help you get ready:
As a first step, look at your 2012 return. Unless your job, living situation or financial situation has changed notably since you last filed your taxes, chances are you will need the same set of forms, schedules and receipts this year as you did last year. So open that manila folder (or online vault) and make or print a list of the items that accompanied your 2012 return. You should receive the TY 2013 versions of everything you need by early February at the latest.
How much documentation is needed? If you don’t freelance or own a business, your list may be short: W-2(s), 1099-INT(s), perhaps 1099-DIVs or 1099-Bs, a Form 1098 if you pay a mortgage, and maybe not much more. Independent contractors need their 1099-MISCs, and the self-employed need to compile every bit of documentation related to business expenses they can find: store and restaurant receipts, mileage records, utility bills, and so on.1
In totaling receipts, don’t forget charitable donations. The IRS wants all of them to be documented. A taxpayer who donates $250 or more to a qualified charity needs a written acknowledgment of such a donation. If your own documentation is sufficiently detailed, you may deduct $0.14 for each mile driven on behalf of a volunteer effort for a qualified charity.1
Or medical expenses & out-of-pocket expenses. Collect receipts for any expense for which your employer doesn't reimburse you, and any medical bills that came your way last year.
If you’re turning to a tax preparer, stand out by being considerate. If you present clean, neat and well-organized documentation to a preparer, that diligence and orderliness will matter. You might get better and speedier service as a result: you are telegraphing that you are a step removed from the clients with missing or inadequate paperwork.
Make sure you give your preparer your federal tax I.D. number (TIN), and remember that joint filers must supply TINs for each spouse. If you claim anyone as a dependent, you will need to supply your preparer with that person’s federal tax I.D. number. Any dependent you claim has to have a TIN, and that goes for newborns, infants and children as well. So if your kids don’t have Social Security numbers yet, apply for them now using Form SS-5 (available online or at your Social Security office). If you claim the Child & Dependent Care Tax Credit, you will need to show the TIN for the person or business that takes care of your kids while you work.1,3
While we’re on the subject of taxes, some other questions are worth examining...
How long should you keep tax returns? The IRS statute of limitations for refunds is 3 years, but if you underreport taxable income, fail to file a return or file a claim for a loss from worthless securities or bad debt deduction, it wants you to keep them longer. You may have heard that keeping your returns for 7 years is wise; some CPAs and tax advisors will tell you to keep them for life. If the tax records are linked to assets, you will want to retain them for when you figure out the depreciation, amortization, or depletion deduction and the gain or loss. Insurers and creditors may want you to keep federal tax returns indefinitely.2
Can you use electronic files as records in audits? Yes. In fact, early in the audit process, the IRS may request accounting software backup files via Form 4564 (the Information Document Request). Form 4564 asks the taxpayer/preparer to supply the file to the IRS on a flash drive, CD or DVD, plus the necessary administrator username and password. Nothing is emailed. The IRS has the ability to read most tax prep software files. For more, search online for “Electronic Accounting Software Records FAQs.” The IRS page should be the top result.4
How do you calculate cost basis for an investment? A whole article could be written about this, and there are many potential variables in the calculation. At the most basic level with regards to stock, the cost basis is original purchase price + any commission on the purchase.
So in simple terms, if you buy 200 shares of the Little Emerging Company @ $20 a share with a $100 commission, your cost basis = $4,100, or $20.50 per share. If you sell all 200 shares for $4,000 and incur another $100 commission linked to the sale, you lose $200 – the $3,900 you wind up with falls $200 short of your $4,100 cost basis.5
Numerous factors affect cost basis: stock splits, dividend reinvestment, how shares of a security are bought or gifted. Cost basis may also be “stepped up” when an asset is inherited. Since 2011, brokerages have been required to keep track of cost basis for stocks and mutual fund shares, and to report cost basis to investors (and the IRS) when such securities are sold.5
P.S.: this tax season is off to a late start. Business filers were able to send in federal tax returns starting January 13, but the start date for processing 1040 and 1041 forms was pushed back to January 31. Per federal law, the April 15 deadline for federal tax returns remains in place, as does the 6-month extension available for those who file IRS Form 4868.6,7
Kim Bolker may be reached at 616-942-8600 or kbolker@sigmarep.com
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - bankrate.com/finance/taxes/7-ways-to-get-organized-for-the-tax-year-1.aspx [1/6/14]
2 - irs.gov/Businesses/Small-Businesses-&-Self-Employed/How-long-should-I-keep-records [8/8/13]
3 - irs.gov/Individuals/International-Taxpayers/Taxpayer-Identification-Numbers-%28TIN%29 [1/17/14]
4 - irs.gov/Businesses/Small-Businesses-&-Self-Employed/Use-of-Electronic-Accounting-Software-Records;-Frequently-Asked-Questions-and-Answers [5/22/13]
5 - turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/tax-tips/Rental-Property/Cost-Basis--Tracking-Your-Tax-Basis/INF12037.html [1/23/14]
6 - irs.gov/uac/Newsroom/Starting-Jan.-13-2014-Business-Tax-Filers-Can-File-2013-Returns [1/9/14]
7 - irs.gov/taxtopics/tc301.html [1/22/14]
Why 2014 May Be a Very Good Year
More improvement may be in store for the economy & the stock market.
Will the economy & the bull market make further strides? On both Wall Street and Main Street, 2013 has turned out better than many analysts expected. Will the recovery gain additional momentum in 2014, and will stocks climb even higher?
Optimism is widespread. Do you remember how gloomy things got at the end of 2012? Fears about imminent economic damage from the fiscal cliff and sequester cuts were pervasive, and bears sensed that stocks might retreat. The economy and the market withstood these anxieties and others. Look at last week for another example. Hours after the Federal Reserve announced it would scale back its asset purchases next year, the Dow closed at a fresh all-time high of 16,167.97. December 18 was the index’s best day in more than two months.1
Weren’t investors supposed to be disappointed when the taper occurred? Let’s just say the timing was right. In August, just the hint of an oncoming taper resulted in a 5.6% dip for the Dow. Months ago, some investors were still questioning the strength of the recovery. Today, there is less to question. As Wells Capital Management chief investment strategist James Paulsen commented in USA TODAY, the Fed’s move amounted to a “vote of confidence in the future,” mirroring the confidence on Wall Street.1
The taper to QE3 was relatively small ($10 billion) and came with a pledge to hold interest rates down “well past the time” unemployment declines to 6.5%. So the Fed likely intends to maintain its accommodative stance for some time, which is just fine by investors. (In fact, the Wall Street Journal says that only two of ten Fed officials believe the central bank will raise interest rates next year.) The Fed’s monetary policy has been instrumental to the stock market’s record-setting performance, and it isn’t going away – which is good news for 2014.1,2
Easing isn’t the only thing powering this bull market. The unemployment rate fell to 7.0% in November, a 5-year low. It was 7.9% in January. The economy is projected to generate 2,269,500 new jobs in 2013, and assuming it does, this will be the fourth straight year with a gain in annual job creation. The Fed sees GDP improving more than half a percentage point to 2.8-3.2% in 2014 and growth of 3.0-3.4% for 2015. Housing starts have doubled in the past four years and rose 22.7% in November to a 5½-year peak. The most recently released Case-Shiller Home Price Index (September) showed a 13.3% overall annual gain in home values, and even though year-over-year existing home sales declined in November for the first time in 29 months, the National Association of Realtors said existing home prices had improved 9.4% in a year.2,3,4,5,6,7
The global outlook may also improve. Economists at China’s National Academy of Economic Strategy feel that the PRC will maintain GDP of about 7.5% this year and see as much as 7.8% growth in 2014. Citing Eurostat and Bloomberg research, Money reports that the eurozone economy is projected to grow about 1.4% per year for the next 3-5 years, notably better than the annual 0.2% pace of expansion recorded so far in this decade.4,8
No one is saying there won’t be challenges or surprises next year, and stock market gains in 2014 may not approach those we have seen in 2013. That said, many indicators are signaling that next year could hold considerable promise for both Wall Street and Main Street.
Kim Bolker may be reached at kbolker@sigmarep.com or 616-942-8600.
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/12/18/five-reasons-why-stocks-rose-despite-taper/4114075/ [12/18/13]
2 - blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/12/18/fed-projections-see-no-rate-increase-until-2015/ [12/18/13]
3 - ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/national-employment-monthly-update.aspx [12/19/13]
4 - money.cnn.com/2013/12/09/news/economy/economic-outlook-2014.moneymag/index.html [12/10/13]
5 - reuters.com/article/2013/12/18/idUSLNSINE9BF20131218 [12/18/13]
6 - bostonglobe.com/business/2013/12/01/five-financial-trends-thankful-for/3FyGVa4OpIZNKlNSzHwIbO/story.html [12/1/13]
7 - mortgagenewsdaily.com/12192013_existing_home_sales.asp [12/19/13]
8 - usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-12/10/content_17162933.htm [12/10/13]
A Market to Be Thankful For
Could 2013 end up being the best year for stocks since 1995?
In financial terms, 2013 has been a very nice year – a year in which the economy, the housing and business sectors and the stock market have all improved. Looking back over the year to date, it is particularly amazing to see how stocks have soared in the face of many challenges – some of which proved tougher than others.
Wall Street is enjoying a banner year. As November wraps up, the S&P 500 is up more than 29% YTD and 32% in the past 12 months. If the S&P gains another 2% by year’s end, it will have its best year since 1995. Even if the index has a flat December, it will have its best year since 1997. In addition, it has climbed 166% from its March 2009 bear market low to the present.1,2,3
Opening an even wider window, the total-market Wilshire 5000 index closed at 19,210.45 on November 27, 180% above its March 2009 low of 6,858.43. The optimism has truly carried worldwide: global equities have gained more than $8 trillion in value during 2013.3,4,5
Once again, patience has been the investor’s friend. Even in a good year for stocks like this, you still have to keep from being rattled by the headlines. If you visit some of the popular financial websites with any frequency, you may have seen warnings of a new stock bubble, prognostications that 2014 will bring minimal stock gains, and so forth. This could possibly prove true; then again, those assertions may look foolish six months from now.
Dire warnings (and memories of 2008) do make people cynical about stocks. In a recent University of Chicago/Northwestern University quarterly investor survey of 1,000+ respondents, just 17% said they trusted Wall Street. In comparison, 34% said they trusted banks.6
In a strange way, this degree of distrust could be a good sign for the health of the bull market. Historically, individual investors are impatient – they get out of stocks too soon and get back into stocks too late. Analysts pay attention to their inefficient market timing. When even the most timid bears are putting money into equities, it may be a sign that the bulls are getting tired. It doesn’t seem that we have reached that point yet. The Investment Company Institute has recorded net inflows into mutual funds for 2013, but that follows six straight years of net outflows.6
For stocks, 2013 is kind of like 2012 – only better. This year, Wall Street has put up with a federal government shutdown, a crisis in Syria that threatened to require a U.S. military response, the sequestration cuts, anxiety from the Cyprus banking quagmire, and constant worries about the Federal Reserve halting its economic stimulus. Here we are, November is ending, the Dow is above 16,000 and the S&P is above 1,800. In 2012, you had the fiscal cliff looming, household income hitting a 17-year low, new recessions in Japan and Europe, slower growth in China, and bond guru Bill Gross talking about “the death of equities.” Even so, the S&P rose 13.41% on the year.1,2,7
Be thankful. Many Americans have seen their job prospects, finances, and communities improve this year. Whether you are bullish or bearish, whether you are wealthy or building wealth, whether you are retired or saving for retirement, this is something to be thankful for.
Kim Bolker may be reached at 616-942-8600 or kbolker@sigmarep.com
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND [11/27/13]
2 - 1stock1.com/1stock1_141.htm [11/27/13]
3 - bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-27/asia-stocks-fall-after-u-s-consumer-confidence-declines.html [11/27/13]
4 - investing.money.msn.com/investments/market-index/?symbol=%24US%3aW5000 [11/27/13]
5 - business.financialpost.com/2011/01/18/wilshire-5000-up-100-since-march-2009-lows/ [1/18/11]
6 - azcentral.com/business/consumer/articles/20131023signs-bubble-market-wiles.html [10/23/13]
7 - money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-smarter-mutual-fund-investor/2013/11/26/your-biggest-enemy-may-be-financial-news [11/26/13]
image used under Creative Commons license from flickr/401(k) 2013
What’s Next in the Debt Ceiling Debate?
Implications for the short term & the long term.
In January, will the federal government be shuttered again? At first thought, it seems inconceivable that Congress would want to go through another protracted fight like the one that shut things down for 16 days in October. That could occur, however, if a new budget panel doesn’t meet its deadline.
Once more, the clock is ticking. By December 13, a group of 30 senators and representatives have to hammer out a bipartisan budget agreement. It must a) reconcile the markedly different House and Senate FY 2014 budget plans passed earlier in 2013, and b) map out a longer-term plan to shrink the federal deficit. If a) doesn’t happen, then the country will be threatened with another federal shutdown on January 15. If b) doesn’t happen, then another round of sequester cuts from the 2011 Budget Control Act will be initiated as of that same date.1,2,3,4
Does this seem like déjà vu? It does among many political and economic analysts, who fear a repeat of the supercommittee debacle of 2011, when a bicameral, bipartisan group of 12 Capitol Hill legislators just gave up trying to find a way to shave $2 trillion from the deficits projected for the next decade.4
This new committee is bigger, and like the supercommittee, its leaders are far apart politically. Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) are the budget chairs of their respective chambers of Congress. The key difference lies in the modesty of its ambition. On October 18, Murray told Bloomberg that the committee would aim for “a budget path for this Congress in the next year or two, or further if we can” rather than a “grand bargain” across the next 10 years.1,3
Will they manage that? Some observers aren’t sure. Murray co-chaired the failed supercommittee of 2011, and while Ryan was quiet during the fall budget fight, he recently authored an op-ed piece for the Wall Street Journal reiterating his controversial ideas to slash the deficit by reforming entitlement programs. Still, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told Bloomberg that “there’s a real desire to take another effort, not at a grand bargain, but at a sequestration replacement,” and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) commented that “we don’t want to raise expectations above reality, but I think there’s some things we could do.”1,3,5
Leaders from of both parties maintain there will be no shutdown in January. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) stated that a shutdown is “off the table” this winter. On CNN’s State of the Union, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) warned that the public would not tolerate “another repetition of this disaster”; on ABC’s This Week, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said she sympathized with the public’s “disgust at what happened.” These comments do not necessarily imply expedient negotiations ahead.3,6
The short-term fix didn’t fix everything. As a FY 2014 budget hasn’t yet been agreed upon, the Treasury is still relying on stopgap funding to keep the federal government running through January 15 and “extraordinary measures” to raise the federal debt limit through February 7.2
The long-term outlook for America’s credit rating didn’t really change. Fitch put its outlook for the U.S. on “negative” and warned of a potential downgrade; Dagong, the major Chinese credit ratings agency, actually downgraded the U.S. from A to A-. Even so, S&P and Moody’s didn’t take action as a result of October’s shutdown; while S&P thinks the shutdown will cut 0.6% off of Q4 GDP, it still gives the U.S. an AA+ rating (downgraded from AAA in 2011).7,8
America lacks top-notch credit ratings, but few nations have them. In fact, only 11 countries possess the coveted AAA rating from S&P and Fitch plus the leading Aaa rating from Moody’s. If you look at S&P’s ratings for the globe’s ten largest economies, Germany is the only one with an AAA. China gets an AA- with a “stable” outlook and Japan has an AA- with a “negative” outlook. While Russia has the world’s eighth biggest economy, Moody’s, Fitch and S&P all rate it one grade above junk bond status.7
Is Wall Street all that worried about another shutdown? At the moment, no – because there are several reasons why the next debt debate could be less painful. As the goal appears to be a near-term bargain instead of a grand one, it may be more easily realized. If the newly appointed budget panel fails, the economy can probably weather $20 billion of 2014 sequester cuts. Also, many mid-term elections are scheduled for 2014; do congressional incumbents really want to damage their reputations further with another shameful stalemate?8
While confidence on Wall Street and Main Street would erode with a repeat shutdown, the Treasury might face a slightly easier challenge in January than it did in October. Sequester cuts would trim the already-shrinking federal deficit further in early 2014, conserving some federal money. As a Goldman Sachs research note just cited, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could also make their dividend payments to the Treasury early in Q1, which would also help.8
Global investors can’t really back away from America. The dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, and China owns about $1.3 trillion of our Treasuries. Those two facts alone should compel our legislators to work things out this winter, hopefully before the last minute.7
Kim Bolker may be reached at kbolker@sigmarep.com or 616-942-8600.
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - cnn.com/2013/10/17/politics/budget-talks-whats-next [10/17/13]
2 - csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2013/1017/A-new-shutdown-clock-is-ticking.-Can-Washington-avoid-a-rerun-video [10/17/13]
3 - bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-18/obama-s-goal-of-grand-budget-deal-elusive-as-talks-begin.html [10/18/13]
4 - tinyurl.com/lchxblz [10/18/13]
5 - cnn.com/2013/10/09/politics/shutdown-ryan/ [10/9/13]
6 - tinyurl.com/lbp8cxn [10/20/13]
7 - globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/131018/credit-rating-debt-explained [10/20/13]
8 - cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57608220/5-reasons-wall-street-thinks-the-next-fiscal-feud-will-fizzle/ [10/19/13]
image used under Creative Commons license from flickr/401(k) 2013
Bearish Thoughts Persist in a Bull Market
Are memories of the downturn hurting the financial potential of boomers?
At the end of October, the S&P 500 was up 24.39% in the past 12 months. What investor wouldn’t want gains like that? As uplifting as that market advance was for many, some baby boomers missed out on it. They were simply too afraid to get back into stocks – they couldn’t dispense with their memories of 2008.1
Would most boomers take a 4% return instead? Earlier this year, the multinational investment firm Allianz surveyed Americans with more than $200,000 in investable assets. Allianz found that for most of these people, protecting retirement savings was financial priority number one. Aversion to risk ran high: 76% of the respondents said that they would prefer an investment vehicle that offered a 4% return with no chance of loss of principal over an investment that offered an 8% return without principal protection.2
In the equity markets, risk and reward are not easily divorced. They come together in an imperfect marriage, a problematic one – but it is one you may need to put up with these days if you are seeking decent yields. With interest rates so minimal, fixed-rate, risk-averse investing can put you at a disadvantage even against mild inflation. If you turn your back on equity investing right now, you could find yourself thwarting your retirement savings potential.
Psychology froze some boomers out of the Wall Street rebound. The awful stock market slide of 2008-09 left many midlife investors skittish about stocks. As Wall Street history goes, that was an extraordinary, aberrational stretch of market behavior. These events, and the fears that followed, may have scared certain investors away from stocks for years to come.
What price risk aversion? At the end of the third quarter, more than $8 trillion was sitting in U.S. money market accounts, doing basically nothing. It wasn’t being lost, but it sure wasn’t returning much. In the Allianz survey, 80% of baby boomers polled viewed the stock market as volatile; 38% said that volatility was prompting them to keep some or all of their cash on the sidelines.2,3
While all that money isn’t being exposed to risk, it is also bringing investors meager rewards.
Consider the psychology of our society for a moment. Generation after generation is told to save and invest for future objectives, most prominently a comfortable retirement. That need, that purpose, is not going away. As long as that societal need is in place, people are likely predisposed to believe in the potential of equity investing. So there is a collective American psychology – as yet unshaken – that the stock market is a strong option for investing, making money, and building wealth. (The same unshaken assumption remains in the housing market, even after everything homeowners have been through.)
That powerful collective psychology has contributed to the longevity of bull markets – and it isn’t going away. We had the bulk of the federal government shut down for 16 days last month, and yet the S&P 500 gained 4.46% in October. After 10 months of 2013, the index was up 23.16% YTD – and this is a year that has brought fears of a conflagration in the Middle East, the threat of a U.S. credit rating downgrade and a “fiscal cliff,” sequester cuts, a banking crisis in Cyprus that scared the international financial community, and continued high unemployment. Stocks have vaulted past all of it.1
Consider the view from this wide historical window: in the last 10 years, the S&P 500 has averaged better than a 7% annual return, even with its appalling 47% drop from October 2007 to March 2009. Since 1926, the S&P has a) had 23 years where it returned 10% or better, b) never gone negative over a 20-year period, and c) advanced 8 to 10% a year on average.3
If you bought and held, congratulations. If you opted for tactical asset allocation during the downturn, facing that risk paid off. The point is: you stayed in the market. You didn’t cash out in late 2008 or early 2009 and decide to buy back at the top (as some bearish investors have recently done).
It isn’t time to throw caution to the wind. The Federal Reserve is not going to keep easing forever; QE3 will eventually end, perhaps early in 2014. When it does, Wall Street will react. The market may price it in, or we may see something worse happen. When you look at all the hurdles this bull market has overcome in the past few years, however, you have to think there is at least a bit more upside to come. Wall Street is optimistic and the performance of stocks certainly demonstrates that optimism, even as bearish thoughts persist.
Kim Bolker may be reached at kbolker@sigmarep.com or 616-942-8600.
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [10/31/13]
2 - foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2013/10/24/wall-streets-rallying-so-why-are-boomers-so-scared/ [10/24/13]
3 - business.time.com/2013/09/27/seeking-shelter-from-stock-swings-savers-take-on-a-different-kind-of-risk/ [9/27/13]
SHOULD YOU PAY OFF YOUR HOME BEFORE YOU RETIRE?
Before you make any extra mortgage payments, consider some factors.
Should you own your home free and clear before you retire? At first glance, the answer would seem to be “absolutely, if at all possible.” Retiring with less debt … isn’t that a good thing? Why not make a few extra mortgage payments to get the job done?
In reality, things are not so cut and dried. There is a fundamental opportunity cost to consider. If you decide to put more money toward your mortgage, what could that money potentially do for you if you were to direct it elsewhere?
In a nutshell, the question is: should you pay down low-interest debt, or should you invest the money into a tax-advantaged account that could potentially bring you a strong return?
Relatively speaking, home loans are cheap debt. Compare the interest rate on your mortgage to the one on your credit card. Should you focus your attention on a debt with 6% interest or a debt with 15% interest?
You can usually deduct mortgage interest, so if your home loan carries a 6% interest rate, your after-tax borrowing rate could end up being 5% or lower.
If history is any barometer, your home’s value may increase over time and inflation will effectively reduce the real amount of your mortgage over time.
A Chicago Fed study called mortgage prepayments “the wrong choice”. In 2006, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago presented a white paper from three of its economists titled “The Tradeoff between Mortgage Prepayments and Tax-Deferred Retirement Savings”. The study observed that 16% of American households with conventional 30-year home loans were making “discretionary prepayments” on their mortgages each year – that is, payments beyond their regular mortgage obligations. The authors concluded that almost 40% of these borrowers were "making the wrong choice." The white paper argued that the same households could get a mean benefit of 11-17¢ more per dollar by reallocating the money used for those extra mortgage payments into a tax-deferred retirement account.1
Other possibilities for the money. Let’s talk taxes. You save taxes on each dollar you direct into IRAs, 401(k)s and other tax-deferred investment vehicles. Those invested dollars have the chance for tax-deferred growth. If you are like a lot of people, you may enter a lower tax bracket in retirement, so your taxable income and federal tax rate could be lower when you withdraw the money out of that account.
Another potential benefit of directing more funds toward your 401(k): If the company you work for provides an employer match, then you may be able to collect more of what is often dubbed “free money”.
Let’s turn from tax-deferred retirement investing altogether and consider insurance and college planning. Many families are underinsured and the money for extra mortgage payments could optionally be directed toward long term care insurance or disability coverage. If you’ve only recently started to build a college fund, putting the assets into that fund may be preferable.
Let’s also remember that money you keep outside the mortgage is money that is easier to access.
What if you owe more than your house is worth? Prepaying an underwater mortgage may seem like folly to you – or maybe you really love the house and are in it for the long run. Even so, you could reallocate money that could be used for the home loan toward an emergency fund, or insurance, or some account with the potential for tax-deferred growth – when all the factors are weighed, it might look like the better move.
Think it over. It really comes down to what you believe. If you are bearish, then you may lean toward paying off your mortgage before you retire. There is no doubt about it - when you pay off debt you owe, you effectively get an instant return on your money for every dollar. If you are tantalizingly close to paying off your house, then you may just want to go ahead and do it because you love being free and clear.
On the other hand, model scenarios may tell you another story. After the numbers are run, you may want to direct the money to other financial priorities and opportunities, especially if you tend to be bullish and think the market will perform along the lines of its long-term historical averages.
No one path is right for everyone. If you’re unsure which direction may be most beneficial to you, speak with a qualified Financial Professional.
Kim Bolker may be reached at 616-942-8600 or kbolker@sigmarep.com. This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. If assistance or further information is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
Citations.
1 chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/working_papers/2006/wp2006_05.pdf [8/06]
2 montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=will-you-have-an-adequate-retirement-cash-flow&category=3 [2/27/11]
Entering the Yellen Years
A look at the economist newly nominated to lead the Federal Reserve. Janet Yellen – currently the vice chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve – has been nominated to succeed Ben Bernanke at the helm of the world’s most important central bank. A former UC Berkeley and London School of Economics professor and San Francisco Fed president, Yellen is a globally admired economist with many fans on Wall Street. The way it looks now, in January she will become the most powerful woman in the world.1,2,4
The average investor doesn’t know that much about Yellen and may be wondering what kind of course Fed policy may take under her watch. So here is a closer look at her.
Is Yellen just a clone of Ben Bernanke? It is true, Yellen has often voted in line with Bernanke regarding Fed policy; that was partly why Wall Street cheered her nomination. It also liked the fact that the controversial Larry Summers had withdrawn his name from consideration. Yet there are discernible differences between Yellen and Bernanke.1
The Fed has a mandate to focus on two goals: the goal of full employment, and the goal of price stability. Some Fed chairs lean more toward the first objective, and some lean more toward the second. While Bernanke built a reputation among his fellow economists as a responsive monetarist, Yellen is known as more of a Keynesian, someone who believes in the power of a sustained government stimulus to promote employment and heal the economy. In fact, earlier this year, she commented that “it is entirely appropriate for progress in attaining maximum employment to take center stage.” 1,2
So is Yellen an inflation dove? In the eyes of many, yes. She may end up sustaining QE3 longer than Bernanke might have, and putting off significant tapering of QE3 for longer than her predecessor. Interest rates may stay at rock-bottom levels under her tenure for longer than presumed. Since QE3 began, both Yellen and Bernanke have maintained that easing to the tune of $85 billion in bond purchases per month is needed to fight ongoing high joblessness and subpar growth, even with the threat of asset bubbles or the possibility of losses for the central bank when those bonds are sold.1,2,3
Yellen got it right at a couple of key moments during the 2000s. In 2006, she warned of a housing bubble that could bring down the whole economy, not a particularly dovish moment for her. (Of course, Yellen and her Fed colleagues could have chosen to tighten and try to prevent one from forming 2-3 years earlier.) As the FOMC voted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2007, Yellen wanted a half-percent cut, stating that “any more bad news could put us over the edge, and the possibility of getting bad news — in particular, a significant credit crunch — seems far from remote.” The Great Recession was a fact of life within a year.2,4
While Yellen is widely seen as extending the policies put in place during Ben Bernanke’s term with little alteration, the big question is how quickly and how ably the Fed will be able to tighten if inflation becomes hazardous after all this easing. If Bernanke’s legacy is that of a great scholar of the Great Depression who reactively managed the economy out of dire straits, Yellen’s legacy may be built on how well the Fed can control the side effects and the gradual withdrawal of its current accommodative monetary stance.
Kim Bolker may be reached at kbolker@sigmarep.com or 616-942-8600.
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - cnn.com/2013/10/10/opinion/ghitis-janet-yellen/?hpt=hp_t4 / [10/10/13]
2 - tinyurl.com/kawhouj [3/21/12]
3 - bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-09/janet-yellen-s-to-do-list.html [10/9/13]
4 - tinyurl.com/mlqgjyf [10/13/13]
What If America Shatters Its Debt Ceiling?
The global economic consequences could be severe.
In October, America may risk running out of cash. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew recently urged Congress to lift the federal debt limit before October 17. Secretary Lew claims that if nothing is done by that date, the Treasury will have only about $30 billion in available cash to pay down as much as $60 billion in daily net expenditures. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has a slightly different opinion: it believes that the government will run out of free cash sometime between October 22 and November 1 if a stalemate persists on Capitol Hill.1,2
Many Americans may confuse the impasse over the debt ceiling with the sparring over the federal budget, which has made headlines all September. October 1 was set as a deadline for Congress to pass a stopgap funding measure to avoid possible shutdowns of certain federal agencies. The debt ceiling could be breached in mid-October. Technically speaking, the debt limit was already hit on May 19, with the Treasury Department taking what Secretary Lew calls “extraordinary measures” to keep enough cash on hand, such as dipping into exchange-rate funds.1,2
America has never defaulted on its debt before; what would happen if it did? No one particularly wants to find out. “Any delay in raising the debt ceiling would have dire economic consequences,” respected Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi testified in front of Congress last week. “Consumer, business and investor confidence would be hit hard, putting stock, bond and other financial markets into turmoil.”1
If the debt ceiling shatters, the Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that America would have enough cash on hand to pay 68% of its debt through the end of October. It would have to borrow to meet the $42 billion in Social Security and Medicare payments due in November.2
Global markets might get a systemic shock if America defaulted on bond payments. Investors might have one of their core assumptions upended – the assumption that Treasuries are the safest investment on earth.2
Couldn’t the government just partially pay its debts for a while? Could the Treasury pay off $30 billion in select debts each day and let other debts linger? This approach – known as prioritization – sounds reasonable, but it may not be doable.
The Washington Post reports that Treasury Department computers receive upward of 2 million invoices per day. Software confirms the math on them and greenlights the payment for each one of them, and this all happens dozens of times per second. According to the BPC, the federal government makes almost 100 million different monthly payments on its debt this way. Secretary Lew dismisses the approach; as he wrote in a letter to House Speaker John Boehner, “Any plan to prioritize some payments over others is simply default by another name.”2
Aren’t there some “end runs” the Treasury could make around the problem? In the (very) short term, the Treasury could simply let invoices pile up and delay payments for a particular day until it had enough cash to pay every debt obligation for that day. Or, the Office of Management & Budget could tell assorted federal agencies to slow down the rate of invoices headed to the Treasury, informing them that they would have to wait until later in the year to spend certain monies allocated to them (this is called “apportionment”).2
Two beyond-the-left-field-fence fixes have also been suggested: the possibility of President Obama declaring the debt ceiling unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment, and the idea to mint a $1 trillion coin.
Section 4 of the 14th Amendment says that “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payments of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.” In 2011, White House legal advisers told President Obama that this 1868 reference to the repayment of Civil War liabilities had dubious value as a tool to lift the debt limit.3
Georgia lawyer Carlos Mucha gained fame in 2012 by proposing that the Treasury authorize the U.S. Mint to make a $1 trillion platinum coin which could be deposited at the Federal Reserve. Once deposited, Mucha claimed, the Fed could credit the federal government’s account for $1 trillion and everything would be solved. An obscure passage in the 1997 Omnibus Consolidated Appropriations Act supposedly provides a rationale for this; according to its author, Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE), the passage was written to help coin collectors. In January, Treasury Department spokesperson Anthony Coley told the Washington Post that “neither the Treasury Department nor the Federal Reserve believes that the law can or should be used to facilitate the production of platinum coins for the purpose of avoiding an increase in the debt limit.”4,5
The world waits & watches. As we get into October, the debt limit will become more and more of a global concern – one that will hopefully fade through negotiation and compromise.
Kim Bolker may be reached at kbolker@sigmarep.com or 616-942-8600. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - nytimes.com/2013/09/26/business/treasury-warns-of-potential-default-by-mid-october.html [9/26/13]
2 - washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/25/debt-ceiling-doomsday-comes-oct-17-heres-what-happens-next/ [9/25/13]
3 - nytimes.com/2011/07/25/us/politics/25legal.html [7/24/11]
4 - nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/01/13/proposing-the-unprecedented-to-avoid-default/platinum-coin-would-create-a-trillion-dollar-in-funds [1/13/13]
5 - washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/12/treasury-we-wont-mint-a-platinum-coin-to-sidestep-the-debt-ceiling/ [1/12/13]
Will the Syria Crisis Shock the Markets?
Are fears of a correction & runaway oil prices overblown, or justified?
U.S. military action in Syria appears imminent. Assuming it happens, what happens to the financial markets?
Investor reaction on August 27 (the day U.S. intervention was mentioned as a possibility) was not exactly surprising. Gold entered a bull market again, oil prices reached a six-month peak (surpassing $109 a barrel), the Dow fell 170 points and the CBOE VIX rose 12%. Overseas markets broadly slumped; emerging market stocks hit a 7-week low. India’s rupee fell to a record low versus the dollar. The yield of the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.72%, decreasing for a third straight day. All of this left market analysts with major questions to consider.1
Will oil hit $150 a barrel? While U.S. investors keep an eye on the NYMEX, the international benchmark is Brent crude. Some analysts do see Brent crude hitting $120-125 in the coming weeks – Michael Wittner, global head of oil research for Societe Generale, told CNBC that he believes that will happen, in the event of military intervention. Wittner also thinks that Brent crude has about a 20% chance of pushing past $150, but not wholly on what goes on within Syria. “Our big worry is Iraq. The Sunni vs. Shiite conflict in Syria has a direct parallel in Iraq, and the violence in Iraq has reached levels not seen since 2008," Wittner wrote in a note to investors. A key oil pipeline in northern Iraq ferrying oil to Turkey has endured multiple attacks since May, severely hampering Iraq’s daily oil exports. Other analysts worry about attacks on pipelines in Saudi Arabia.2
On the other hand, U.S. oil output is at a 20-year peak, and Saudi Arabia and other major players in the oil market could tap strategic reserves or increase production in response to a short-term price spike. As business and consumer demand for oil and gasoline typically weaken at some point in response to price hikes, prices would likely moderate.2
Greg Priddy, director of global oil at Eurasia Group, told CNBC that he doesn’t see a big disruption in the oil market ahead – he envisions a “very limited attack” that is “not going to change the situation in the region right now.” As toppling Bashar al-Assad’s government could put rebels in charge but also risk opening a door to al-Qaeda, the view of some analysts – Brent crude temporarily hovering around $120, U.S. oil prices keeping below that level – may prove correct. “This would have to turn into a region-wide conflagration in order for prices to stay [at that level],” John Kilduff of Again Capital remarked to CNBC. “If rockets start flying into Gaza and into Israel and other things happen, such as an attack on Saudi Arabia, all bets are off.”2
Would U.S. stocks plunge? The Dow is on pace for a decline of more than 5% in August, so bears wonder if a correction is in progress. No one has a crystal ball, but it is true that the U.S. equity markets have weathered geopolitical crises well in the recent past. Our stock market rose in the year prior to our military’s involvement in Libya in March 2011, fell that summer, then rose again. The fall coincided with the debt ceiling struggle on Capitol Hill, not the unrest in Libya. In the case of the Persian Gulf War and the War in Iraq, U.S. stocks were in the doldrums in the quarters preceding the fighting yet rose about the time hostilities began.3
As MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert commented this week, “Rising interest rates and above-average valuations are a bigger threat to the stock market than the possibility of U.S. military action in Syria.” Opening a wide historical window, he cites a fundamental article from the Journal of Portfolio Management co-authored by none other than Larry Summers, who stands a chance of being our next Federal Reserve chairman. It looked at the impact of 49 major geopolitical events on the stock market from 1941 to 1987, measuring the S&P 500’s absolute return on those momentous days (Pearl Harbor, the assassination of JFK, etc.). The S&P’s average movement across those 49 days was 1.46% : significant, but not radically removed from the average 0.56% variance occurring across all other market days in a 46-year period. For the record, the S&P rose 0.60% on August 28 while the CBOE VIX dipped 3.6% to 16.17.3,4
Could this crisis make the Fed reconsider tapering? Recent days have seen a real flight to quality – to gold, to the dollar, to Treasuries. You have a couple of currencies seemingly in freefall: the Indian rupee and the Turkish lira. For that matter, Brazil’s real recently hit a five-year low versus the greenback. Indonesian stocks just dropped 5% in a single market day. In short, some key emerging markets/developing economies are having it rough – and a lack of economic growth in those nations may not bode well for America. If the trouble in Syria worsens and leads to further trouble for them, some analysts think the Fed might postpone the careful unwinding of QE3 – either out of caution, or out of global economic necessity.5
The takeaway? As Ron Florance, a deputy CIO at Wells Fargo Private Bank in Scottsdale, Arizona, told Reuters on August 28: “Yesterday was a little overdone but investors need to be ready [and realize] that volatility is going to be here for a while.” Just think twice before letting short-term volatility affect long-term investment plans.4
Kim Bolker may be reached at 616-942-8600 or kbolker@sigmarep.com. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - marketwatch.com/story/syria-intervention-fears-hit-global-markets-2013-08-27 [8/27/13]
2 - tinyurl.com/pjxsoau [8/28/13]
3 - marketwatch.com/story/what-us-intervention-in-syria-would-mean-2013-08-28 [8/28/13]
4 - reuters.com/article/2013/08/28/markets-global-idINL2N0GT1BA20130828 [8/28/13]
5 - marketwatch.com/story/syria-emerging-market-crisis-will-stop-the-taper-2013-08-28 [8/28/13]
Pension Questions After the Detroit Bankruptcy
How many retirees face the possibility of less recurring income?
On July 18, Detroit became the largest American city to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy. What will happen to the pensions of its 20,000+ retired public employees? There is a possibility they could be reduced – perhaps greatly. In the wake of Detroit’s fiscal problems, current and future pension recipients across the country are wondering about the stability and amount of their promised incomes.1,2
In Michigan, the fate of the pension checks for these employees may be determined in the courts. While a federal judge is overseeing Detroit’s bankruptcy proceedings, Michigan’s state constitution states that pension benefits can’t be altered. On July 24, the aforementioned federal judge froze assorted state-court lawsuits brought against the city arguing that the bankruptcy filing was unconstitutional (at the state level). As much as Detroit might want to scale back pensions for fiscal relief, it may be prohibited from doing so.1
When pensions shrink after municipal bankruptcies, how bad is it? For a sobering example, look at Central Falls, RI, which filed for bankruptcy in 2011. Following that declaration, the city whittled away more than 50% of the pension checks issued to a third of its retirees. For example, the average retired firefighter’s annual pension income went from $68,414 to $30,786.2
That’s certainly drastic, and it may not be replicated in Detroit or in Stockton, CA (the second largest American city to go bankrupt). Stockton is reducing bond payments, but so far has refrained from slashing pensions. (As it happens, the city’s biggest creditor is CalPERS, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System.) California’s state constitution also bars reductions in pension benefits, so Stockton’s retired public employees may be waiting on the courts as well.1
Municipal pensions aren’t the only ones at risk. Polaroid went bankrupt, and as a consequence, its retirees are receiving pension checks courtesy of the federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) – checks that, as MarketWatch columnist Robert Powell recently noted, represent “a fraction of what they were supposed to receive.” The biggest multiemployer pension fund in America is that of the Teamsters (the Teamsters’ Central States, Southeast & Southwest Pension Plan). When 2012 ended, it held $17.8 billion in assets. Its liabilities were at $34.9 billion.2
The worst-case scenario is worth considering – just in case. If you receive a pension or are in line for one, developments like these may give you pause. It might be time to ask “what if” – what options you might have if your pension shrinks.
Suppose your pension income was cut 20-30%. What choices would you make? Would you try to live on less, and maybe move to a region where living expenses might be lower? Would you explore becoming a consultant or a solopreneur, or look into part-time work? Could you find methods to generate passive income, or make financial moves to replace any recurring income that would be lost?
With too many pensions on shaky ground these days, a conversation with a financial professional about these what-ifs is a very good idea.
Kim Bolker may be reached at kbolker@sigmarep.com or 616-942-8600.
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - nation.time.com/2013/07/25/the-wages-of-bankruptcy-stocktons-cautionary-tale-for-detroit/ [7/25/13]
2 - marketwatch.com/story/will-your-pension-disappear-post-detroit-2013-07-24 [7/24/13]
Some Fiscal Cliff Scenarios
What could play out in the near future?
Will 2013 be as severe as some economists think? The fiscal cliff is getting closer and closer. How will Congress respond?
In the worst-case scenario, Congress argues and deadlocks. Tax hikes and roughly $109 billion in federal spending cuts take a bite out of GDP and another recession becomes a possibility.1
There are other possibilities, however. The fiscal cliff may yet be averted, or at least we might back away from its edge. One of several scenarios might come to pass.
Scenario A: Congress buys time. Many analysts think this is exactly what will happen. Congress is in a lame-duck session. The option for legislators to “pass the buck” may prove tantalizing. So we could see a short-term, stopgap deal with the idea that the next session of Congress will tackle the problem later in 2013. The debt ceiling could be raised, and a “down payment” might be made on longer-term liabilities.1
Scenario B: Congress can’t make a deal. This may not be so improbable; if you remember the “super committee” assigned to craft a deficit reduction plan in 2011, you will also remember that it didn’t accomplish the set task. In fact, we are facing the fiscal cliff because of that committee’s failure.2
The “fiscal cliff” already amounts to Plan B. When Congress and the White House reached an accord to raise the debt ceiling back in August 2011, $1 trillion in federal spending cuts were greenlighted and Congress was told to find $1.2 trillion more to slash. As that didn’t happen, $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts are set to begin next year. So Congress would actually be following federal law if it did nothing to respond to the issue.2
Doing nothing seems unsuitable, but there is the risk that history could repeat itself. Election outcomes may alter political assumptions and interfere with consensus. If it looks like we will go over the cliff in the waning days of 2012, there is a strong possibility that the incoming 113th Congress could vote quickly to reinstate select spending levels and tax breaks. That might mute some of the clamor from global financial markets.3
Scenario C: Middle ground is reached. Some degree of compromise occurs that leaves no one particularly satisfied. Certain short-term provisions are phased out, such as the payroll tax holiday, the recent increases for small business expensing, and assorted tax credits and tax breaks for education. The Bush-era tax cuts are preserved (at least temporarily) for the middle class, but rates rise for those making $1 million or more per year. The clock turns back to 2009 with regard to estate taxes. The rich face higher taxes on capital gains and dividends. Perhaps some defense cuts are postponed.
Scenario D: The “Grand Bargain.” Congress and the White House boldly arrive at a something more than an incrementally enacted deficit reduction plan. They reach a “grand bargain,” a deal designed to cut the deficit by $4 trillion by the mid-2020s, after historic, long-range compromises are made to reach stability on assorted tax and spending issues. With a lame-duck Congress, this may be a longshot.1
Scenario E: The “Down Payment.” Legislators could always tear a page from another playbook in trying to solve this problem. The Bipartisan Policy Center, for example, thinks a “grand bargain,” or anything approximating a real deal on the fiscal cliff, is unlikely given the short interval between the election and 2013. It recommends a “down payment” of deficit cuts that could be approved by a fast-tracked simple majority vote. If Congress didn’t take further steps to cut the deficit next year, then certain tax breaks would disappear and cuts would hit social welfare programs (excepting Social Security).2
Whatever happens in Washington, this is a prime time to consider financial moves with the potential to lower your taxes and insulate your wealth. Explore the possibilities before 2013 arrives.
Kim Bolker may be reached at kbolker@sigmarep.com or 616-942-8600. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - articles.marketwatch.com/2012-10-25/economy/34719282_1_fiscal-cliff-tax-cuts-defense-cuts [10/25/12]
2 – thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/262893-bipartisan-policy-center-floats-fiscal-cliff-solution [10/12/12]
3 - www.salon.com/2012/11/01/a_look_at_3_scenarios_as_the_fiscal_cliff_looms/singleton/ [11/1/12]
The aftermath of Sandy
Gauging the economic and market impact of the storm.
Hurricane Sandy’s fury has exacted a considerable and tragic toll. Even with the relief efforts now underway, it will be some time before things return to normal in many communities. How has Sandy impacted Main Street, Wall Street and the broader economy?
Repairing Main Street. How do you begin to total the damage from a storm affecting 20% of the U.S. population?1
EQECAT, a risk-modeling firm, thinks it could run as much as $10-$20 billion, with $5-$10 billion reflecting insured losses. This is an important distinction, as many analysts feel a tally of $10 billion or less in covered losses could have a comparably diminished effect on the insurance industry beyond the fourth quarter. However, respected University of Maryland economist Peter Morici told MarketWatch that total losses could reach $35-45 billion if the superstorm ultimately proves more powerful than Hurricane Irene… exactly how Sandy was being described the morning after. That would fall well short of the economic hit from Hurricane Katrina, from which the damage totaled about $108 billion; 1992’s Hurricane Andrew was responsible for roughly $60.5 billion of destruction. Federal government officials say they have about $3.6 billion ready to pay for relief efforts.1,2,7
If there is any good side to this, it is that the collective response to Sandy’s destruction may amount to an economic stimulus. MarketWatch notes that as much as $20 billion could be spent over the next 12 to 24 months on new construction, remodeling and renovation, which could further invigorate the construction industry, indirectly aid the job market, and bring about increased consumer spending.1,2
Resuming trading on Wall Street. Will the New York Stock Exchange’s goal of reopening Wednesday morning turn out to be realistic? Just in case, NYSE Euronext will test a backup plan Tuesday morning, a plan B that could permit trading in case things aren’t up to speed by Halloween. In this scenario, NYSE Arca would become the primary market for New York-listed stocks – we’re talking about the NYSE’s electronic market that could operate even if its trading floor or headquarters were closed for the day.3
As for Tuesday, all NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges will close across all asset classes. While the CME Group’s Nymex floor will be closed today, its products are still available electronically. CME Group opened trading of equity-index futures and options Monday night, but that trading ended early today; however, trading of interest-rate futures and options will resume with normal trading hours. The CBOE and CBOE Futures Exchange are shuttered today; CBOE Holdings will update traders if the closure is forced to stretch into Wednesday.3
With the end of the month coming, there is extra impetus to get the market open – fund managers need to adjust holdings before November starts.
What about earnings and the October jobs report? Many corporations are delaying the release of third-quarter earnings reports. Hertz, Spirit, and Waste Management will now report quarterly results on Wednesday; Pfizer, Pitney-Bowes, Ralph Lauren, Sirius XM, and TripAdvisor will follow suit Thursday; McGraw-Hill and Thomson Reuters will now report Q3 earnings on Friday. Time Warner Cable will announce Q3 results on November 5, and Office Depot is delaying issuing its Q3 results until November 6.4
“Our intention is that Friday will be business as usual,” Labor Department public affairs specialist Jennifer Kaplan told CBS News regarding the release of October’s employment report. While noting that the severity of the storm might hinder some of the report’s final calculations, Labor Department officials are hopeful that the report can be released as scheduled November 2 (at 8:30am EST).5
Fuel prices. U.S. natural gas consumption could be greatly tempered this week, and prices may move significantly. New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware are home to five of the most important gasoline refineries on the east coast, but analysts feel they could rebound decently from any storm-related problems. While RBOB gas futures rose Monday as traders assumed some disruption in supplies, it appeared the bigger blip might be demand, with commuting and trucking patterns potentially thrown out of whack for days.6
As to whether drivers might see a violent spike in gas prices, the Oil Price Information Service’s Tom Kloza dismisses the notion: “My hunch is we’ll get a wobble higher in the next couple of days, and then resume [heading] lower.”6
After the stress of this superstorm, we can only hope that its economic effect will not be as severe as some anticipated.
Kim Bolker may be reached at kbolker@sigmarep.com or 616-942-8600. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204840504578086290411855054.html [10/29/12]
2 - marketwatch.com/story/big-storms-rarely-dent-economy-for-long-2012-10-29 [10/29/12]
3 – www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-29/u-dot-s-dot-stock-trading-canceled-as-new-york-girds-for-storm [10/30/12]
4 – www.cnbc.com/id/49596291 [10/29/12]
5 – www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57542196/will-hurricane-sandy-delay-the-jobs-report/ [10/29/12]
6 – www.cnbc.com/id/49596291 [10/29/12]
7 - http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/30/us-storm-sandy-insurance-idUSBRE89T0WT20121030 [10/30/12]